US oil prices are edging up as the Iran war moves into its third week without any sign of resolution, with Monday expected to bring fresh volatility at gas stations across the country. Analyst Patrick De Haan has placed his forecast at $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while noting that $4 gasoline remains a possibility. Three weeks of sustained conflict have created a persistent and growing upward pressure on energy costs that is beginning to affect the broader American economy.
The conflict began on February 28 with the opening of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, an operation that immediately disrupted global oil supply and set off a sustained round of price increases. From below $3 per gallon before hostilities began, the national average has risen 23% to $3.70, a rapid and sustained escalation that has left consumers and businesses alike adjusting to a fundamentally new fuel cost environment. The absence of any resolution in sight suggests that further price increases may be forthcoming.
The US strike on Kharg Island on Friday, targeting Iran’s most strategically important oil processing facility, added fresh pressure to global supply at a time when markets were already highly strained. Iran’s continuation of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has maintained the removal of roughly 20% of global oil supply from international markets. Brent crude fluctuated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 following a brief spike to $100 on Sunday.
California’s motorists are bearing the heaviest domestic price burden, with state averages above $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations posting prices above $8. Commercial diesel for freight and transport could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally. The heads of Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have all engaged White House officials with urgent supply concerns, with Exxon’s Darren Woods specifically warning about the risk of speculative trading creating a price spiral beyond what physical supply conditions alone would generate.
Wall Street opened Monday with modest gains, the S&P 500 rising approximately 1% following a brief oil price retreat. Major oil company shares have reached record highs since the conflict began. Without a diplomatic or military breakthrough, the upward edge in US oil prices is likely to continue for weeks to come.