Mexico is confronting potential fuel supply challenges as U.S. President Donald Trump supports a proposal to limit or ban diesel exports from the United States, amid escalating energy prices. This development is significant for Mexico, which imports over 40% of its diesel from the U.S., equating to about 288,000 barrels daily as of June 2026, according to U.S. energy data.
Experts in the fuel sector caution that any disruption in U.S. diesel supplies could compel Mexico to seek alternatives from more distant sources. Such a shift would likely increase transportation costs and could lead to a rise in fuel prices, subsequently affecting inflation and critical industries reliant on diesel, such as transportation, agriculture, and mining.
In the United States, diesel prices have surged due to global energy supply disruptions linked to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Despite these challenges, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has assured that the country’s domestic production is sufficient and that the government will continue to support diesel prices. She cited the role of Mexico’s refinery network, including the Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco.
The Mexican government has maintained fuel subsidies and established a voluntary price agreement with fuel retailers. Additionally, diesel prices are being moderated through tax measures and supplementary government assistance to mitigate the impact of rising international energy costs.
Energy experts are urging Mexico to prepare for potential supply disruptions by diversifying its diesel import sources, boosting domestic refining capabilities, and enhancing fuel storage capacity. As Mexico seeks to minimize its vulnerability to changes in U.S. energy policy and fluctuations in global fuel supplies, these strategies are considered crucial.